Blockware Releases Bitcoin User Adoption Report

  • Blockware Solutions released a report detailing Bitcoin’s likely adoption curve.
  • The report compares Bitcoin to other disruptive technologies and calculates adoption rates relative to the global population.
  • The company estimates that Bitcoin will not exceed 10% of global adoption until 2030.

Blockware Solutions, an infrastructure provider for blockchain technologies, has just released Bitcoin User Adoptiona conceptual perspective of adoption as it relates to disruptive technology adoption cycles.

The report begins by describing what an adoption curve is, which can be described as a sociological measure of the life cycle of a particular idea. As technologies change, the human reaction to innovation is largely predictable. This prediction is depicted in the widely used “S-curve” shown in the table below.

If we squint, we can see Satoshi Nakamoto breaking new ground in the early 2.5% S-curve at the bottom of the chart. Innovators are followed by early adopters, then the early majority, and so on.

Spoiler Alert: Blockware’s report notes that we are still in the “early adopters” phase. But, how is this quantified? How can adoption be considered a metric?

Blockware took nine disruptive technologies and calculated the percentage of US homes using them. The list includes: automotive, radio, landline, power supply, smartphone, tablet, mobile phone, internet and social media.

Then, among these measures, the company calculates a weighted average (60%, or 20% for each) for: Internet, smartphones and social media. The results are stunning.

S-curve of disruptive technology

Parabolic adoption levels began steadily at 10% adoption rates.

The report goes on to explain that Bitcoin adoption is likely to outpace other technologies for two main reasons. Bitcoin provides a monetary incentive to adopt as the price rises, and the internet allows for an exponential increase in the speed of information dissemination.

Blockware initially quantifies growth across bull markets through the eyes of new users, defined as “new entities,” on Glassnode, a blockchain heuristics firm that sources data provided in the report.

Blockware Report on New Entities

As we can see, new users arrive during bull times, most stick around and some get rattled in market down times. But the trend remains the same and is estimated at 254 million users (3% of the world’s population).

These new users have set the tone for a new bull run in the market as doomed holders remain. However, the flaw with this metric is that it does not track users who have left the network. This is where “net entity growth” comes in to explain the difference between new users and “dead” users. But even by this calculation, the trend remains largely unchanged.

Cumulative sum Entities Net growth

This metric leaves us with 30.8 million total unique users when “disappeared” addresses are removed.

When the 30.8 million users are divided by the global population, we are left with 0.36% global adoption. This estimate would still place us in the innovator section of the S-curve. However, it is important to note that this is on-chain data only.

“Using the cumulative sum of net entity growth and its [10-year compounded annual growth rate] CAGR of 60%, we expect global Bitcoin adoption to exceed 10% in 2030,” Blockware said in the report.

World Population Using Bitcoin

We are still so early.

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